Activities of the NHF modelling team

Activities of focus within the NHF modelling team include the following:

• Work undertaken under the auspices of the CDC in the U.S. employing the simulation to run over National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey data in order to quantify, in a manner similar to that used in the Foresight work, the obesity levels of the U.S. population            
   

• Provide a picture of recent trends in adult obesity in England to complement the same study for child obesity trends and update health, health costs and life expectancy incurred in light of the above updated trends (for both children and adults)
   

• The micro-simulation tool has been deployed to investigate the likely impact on economic, health consequences and obesity levels after local interventions directed at school-aged children by local Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) in Bristol and Avon and will possibly be used by other PCTs elsewhere in the U.K.
  

• Continued software development has resulted in the micro-simulation program migrating from a specific, BMI calculator to a more general health risk simulation, based upon modelled risk factors (BMI and tobacco consumption at present) with the intention to extend this to include alcohol intake as a further risk factor in the longer term.
  

• As part of the work in progress, the NHF modelling team are employing the model, and using General Household Survey (GHS) data, to predict the distribution of tobacco consumption (a risk factor) now and into the future by various strata and to use these projections to quantify the frequency of various tobacco induced diseases now and in the future. Furthermore, the team are investigating the effects on the disease distributions of various interventions to reduce tobacco consumption and with particular emphasis on the influence that tobacco intake has on social inequalities.
  

• Updating and extending the previous work carried out for the Department of Health. This will entail updating future adult obesity prevalence forecasts including impact on morbidity, mortality and costs and also the incorporation of new obesity related conditions such as mental health, liver disease and respiratory problems.
  

• Collaboration with various U.K. based Ph.D. students whom are, using the micro-simulation tool in their various areas of research.
  

• A report, soon to be published, on obesity induced osteoarthritis of the knee which utilises the NHF model, is work in progress